ADB Cuts Developing Asia 2025 Growth Forecast to 4.7% on U.S. Tariffs

The Asian Development Bank lowered its economic outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific, warning that higher U.S. tariffs and persistent trade frictions are eroding momentum across the region. In its Asian Development Outlook released Wednesday, the multilateral lender cut the bloc’s 2025 growth projection to 4.7% from 4.9% estimated in April and trimmed the 2026 forecast to 4.6% from 4.7%. ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said the external environment has become "increasingly challenging," citing geopolitics, supply-chain disruptions, rising energy prices and continued weakness in China’s property market. The report covers 46 economies ranging from China to Samoa, excluding advanced markets such as Japan and Australia. Southeast Asia is expected to see the sharpest slowdown, with growth now seen at 4.2% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, down half a percentage point from earlier forecasts. Country-level downgrades include India, where the fiscal-year 2026 expansion forecast was cut to 6.5%, and Thailand, whose 2025 outlook was reduced to 1.8% from 2.8%. Malaysia and South Korea also faced reductions, while China’s 2025 projection was kept unchanged at 4.7%. The Manila-based bank urged governments to reinforce economic fundamentals and promote open trade and regional integration to cushion the impact of the tariff regime that took effect in April and the broader uncertainty over global commerce.