Quaest Poll Puts Lula Ahead for 2026 as Bolsonaro Loses Right-Wing Edge

A nationwide survey by Instituto Quaest shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading the early field for Brazil’s 2026 presidential election with 34 % of first-round voting intentions, six points ahead of former president Jair Bolsonaro at 28 %. Senator and former infrastructure minister Tarcísio de Freitas, viewed as a possible right-wing alternative, trails with smaller single-digit support in the first round but outperforms Bolsonaro in hypothetical run-offs. In the main second-round test released on Thursday, Lula would beat Tarcísio by 43 % to 35 %, maintaining an advantage in every scenario examined by the pollster. Analysts noted it is the first time since Bolsonaro entered national politics that he is not the right’s most competitive candidate, underscoring an erosion of his electoral pull following corruption probes and internal disputes within his Liberal Party. Quaest also mapped public sentiment toward state leaders. Approval remains high for several first-term governors, led by Ronaldo Caiado in Goiás (88 % approval), Ratinho Júnior in Paraná (84 %) and Tarcísio in São Paulo (60 %). Caiado and Ratinho are constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, while Tarcísio has signalled interest in re-election rather than a presidential bid. Early state-level preference polls mirror those numbers. In São Paulo, Tarcísio would secure 43 % of the vote versus Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin’s 21 %. Rio de Janeiro mayor Eduardo Paes leads the gubernatorial race there with 35 %, and Senator Cleitinho appears ahead in Minas Gerais with 28 %. In Paraná, former justice minister Sergio Moro commands 38 % of support. The presidential and gubernatorial surveys were conducted between 13 and 17 August among samples that ranged from roughly 1,600 to 2,000 respondents, depending on the state. Margins of error are about two percentage points, and all results carry a 95 % confidence level.