Global arabica coffee prices have surged more than 30% this month, with ICE futures trading around $3.74 a pound on Friday, approaching the record set early this year. Marcio Ferreira, president of Brazil’s coffee exporters council Cecafe, said the rally is being driven largely by Washington’s 50% tariff on Brazilian beans that took effect on 6 August, making direct shipments to the United States uneconomic and stoking speculative buying on the exchange. The price spike comes as Brazil’s 2025 arabica harvest, now in its final stages, is running about 10% below initial projections and recent frosts threaten next season’s crop. Faced with the duty, U.S. roasters are pausing new purchases from Brazil and lobbying for an exemption, while European buyers have stepped in, eyeing opportunities to process the beans and re-export finished coffee to the United States where tariffs are lower on European goods. Pressure is filtering through to consumers. The latest U.S. inflation report showed retail coffee prices up 14.5% in July from a year earlier, and analysts warn that limited hedging among American roasters could amplify future increases if green-bean costs stay high. Importers are also turning to Central America and Colombia, but those origins command premiums over ICE futures, limiting relief. Ferreira cautioned that without a policy shift, “there may be no ceiling” to arabica prices in the near term.