Chile Polls Narrow: Jara Leads First Round, Kast Favoured in Runoff

Chile’s presidential race tightened over the weekend after two separate opinion surveys showed the communist former labour minister Jeannette Jara still leading the first round but losing ground to her conservative rivals in potential run-offs. The August edition of the Criteria poll, carried out between 29 and 31 July, put Jara on 28%, followed by José Antonio Kast with 26% and Santiago mayor Evelyn Matthei at 15%. Although Jara retains a narrow lead, Criteria’s simulated second round indicated she would fall to either Kast or Matthei. A Pulso Ciudadano survey published the same day confirmed the trend. Jara’s support dropped 8.4 percentage points to 25.4% compared with the previous month, while Kast climbed 5.1 points to 22.4%. In head-to-head scenarios, Kast would beat Jara 41.1% to 33.5%, and Matthei would prevail 40.4% to 29.8%. An earlier Panel Ciudadano-UDD poll also placed Kast in front with 29% against Jara’s 27%. The convergence of polls suggests momentum is shifting toward the right-wing contenders ahead of the 2026 presidential vote.