Aug 18, 07:15 AM

China Faces Cooling Growth as Investment Drops Despite Regional GDP Gains

China’s post-pandemic rebound is showing signs of fatigue even as some regional economies maintain momentum. A senior official said the combined gross domestic product of the country’s five autonomous regions rose from 6.01 trillion yuan (US$843 billion) in 2020 to nearly 8.38 trillion yuan in 2024, underscoring the contribution of Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Tibet, Ningxia and Xinjiang to national output. Nationwide indicators tell a cooler story. Overall GDP expanded 5.3 percent in the first half of 2025, but fixed-asset investment fell 5.2 percent year on year in July—the steepest non-pandemic drop in more than two decades. Retail sales grew just 3.7 percent, the slowest pace since December 2024, and credit demand turned negative as new bank lending contracted for the first time in 20 years. Economists at Morgan Stanley now see growth easing to 4.5 percent in the July-to-September quarter, citing President Xi Jinping’s campaign to curb industrial overcapacity and a protracted property slump. Policymakers have rolled out targeted stimulus and may deploy further rate cuts; the People’s Bank of China again pledged to achieve a “reasonable pace of price growth” in its latest quarterly report. While equity markets have responded—Shanghai’s benchmark index has gained almost 30 percent over the past 12 months—persistent deflationary pressures and falling home prices highlight the challenge of generating sustainable consumer demand. Analysts say the issue is likely to dominate discussions as Beijing drafts its next five-year plan.

#China #Inner Mongolia #Guangxi #Tibet #Ningxia #Xinjiang #Morgan Stanley #Xi Jinping #Shanghai #Beijing

Written with ChatGPT .

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