China has cleared two major technical hurdles in its crewed lunar programme, putting it on what analysts say is a credible path to land astronauts on the Moon before the end of the decade and potentially ahead of the United States. On 15 August, engineers ignited the centre core of the new three-stage Long March 10 rocket for 30 seconds, firing seven kerosene-oxygen YF-100K engines at full thrust. The ground test followed an earlier hover-and-landing rehearsal of the 26-ton Lanyue lunar lander on 6 August and a launch-escape test of the Mengzhou crew capsule in June. The rapid, sequential demonstrations give Beijing working prototypes for all three critical elements of a lunar expedition: heavy-lift propulsion, a crew spacecraft and a surface lander. The China Manned Space Agency reiterated after the Lanyue test that it intends to place taikonauts on the lunar surface "before 2030" and is drafting a five-year plan that is expected to lay out further robotic and crewed sorties as well as an initial polar outpost. By contrast, NASA’s schedule for returning astronauts under the Artemis programme has slipped into the 2030s as SpaceX and Blue Origin refine new reusable landers. Space policy specialists say China’s timetable now appears likely to beat America back to the Moon, a result that could reshape standards for cislunar navigation, communications and resource utilisation and strengthen Beijing’s broader technology narrative. NASA, meanwhile, is advancing its own lunar infrastructure work, including studies on moonquake risks to long-duration habitats, but faces mounting pressure to lock in funding and strategy if it hopes to match China’s pace.