China’s private-sector manufacturing activity returned to growth for the first time in two months, with the Caixin/S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index rising to 50.4 in June from 48.3 and beating economists’ expectations for 49.3. The improvement, driven by stronger output and new orders, brought the Caixin composite gauge back into expansion at 51.3 even as the survey’s services component eased to a nine-month low of 50.6. The official National Bureau of Statistics data released earlier in the week painted a more subdued picture: the headline manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7, its second month in contraction territory, while the non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.5. The divergence suggests large, state-linked producers remain under pressure, whereas smaller, export-oriented firms captured by the Caixin survey are benefiting modestly from a U.S.–China trade truce and early policy support at home. Caixin economist Wang Zhe said the figures indicate that “policy measures aimed at stabilising the economy are starting to take effect,” but warned that a “severe and complex external environment” and weak domestic demand continue to weigh on the outlook. Services firms reported the slowest increase in activity since September 2024, and hiring across the sector fell after a brief pickup in May. June purchasing-managers data elsewhere were mixed. In the United States, the ISM manufacturing gauge improved to 49.0 and the S&P Global manufacturing index rose to 52.9, while ISM services activity climbed back above the 50-point threshold to 50.8. The United Kingdom’s services PMI surprised on the upside at 52.8, but the euro-area composite reading held at a sluggish 50.6 and Germany’s services measure stayed in contraction at 49.7. Taken together, the readings point to a patchy global recovery: momentum is building in pockets of manufacturing, yet services growth is moderating in China and remains uneven across Europe, underscoring the importance of sustained domestic stimulus and clearer trade conditions to strengthen the second-half outlook.