A peer-reviewed study published in Environmental Research Letters finds the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation— a system of currents that includes the Gulf Stream— is far more vulnerable to collapse this century than previously assumed. Modelling runs that extend through 2300–2500 show a 70 percent probability of shutdown under high-emission pathways, 37 percent under intermediate emissions and, notably, 25 percent even if global emissions align with the Paris Agreement’s low-emission trajectory. The tipping point at which a collapse becomes irreversible could be reached within the next 10 to 20 years, according to the research team led by Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Sybren Drijfhout of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Observations already indicate a sustained weakening of the current, which is at its weakest state in at least 1,600 years. A shutdown would divert the tropical rainfall belt, add roughly 50 centimetres to sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast, and plunge western Europe into much colder winters and drier summers. The authors say the findings elevate AMOC collapse from a low-likelihood scenario to a significant policy risk, underscoring the urgency of rapid greenhouse-gas cuts.