Eli Lilly released data from the 3,127-patient ATTAIN-1 Phase 3 study of its once-daily obesity pill orforglipron, showing an average 12.4% reduction in body weight—about 27.3 pounds—at the highest 36-mg dose after 72 weeks. Across doses, the investigational GLP-1 agent produced an 11.2% mean weight loss compared with a 0.9% decline for placebo. The primary endpoint was met, with 59.6% of high-dose recipients losing at least 10% of their body weight and 39.6% shedding 15% or more. Gastro-intestinal side effects led 10.3% of patients on the top dose to discontinue treatment versus 2.6% on placebo, but no liver safety signals emerged. While management called the results "on thesis," the efficacy fell short of many analysts’ hopes for roughly 15% weight loss and trails injectable drugs such as Lilly’s Zepbound and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, which have shown reductions of 20% and 15% respectively. Investors reacted sharply: Lilly’s shares sank as much as 14%, their steepest single-day decline since August 2000, wiping out roughly $100 billion in market value. The setback bolstered rivals; Novo Nordisk rose up to 14% in Copenhagen trading as expectations swung back toward its oral semaglutide, now under U.S. regulatory review. The disappointing pill data overshadowed a strong quarter for Lilly. Second-quarter revenue jumped 38% to $15.6 billion, powered by the blockbuster injectables Mounjaro and Zepbound, and adjusted earnings climbed 61%. The company lifted its 2025 outlook to $60-62 billion in sales and $21.75-23.00 in adjusted EPS, yet the guidance failed to steady the stock. Lilly said it will submit the orforglipron dossier to regulators by the end of the year and is running a second pivotal trial that could report later in 2025. The results intensify the race to deliver the first widely accessible oral weight-loss therapy, a market some analysts expect to top $90 billion by the end of the decade.
$LLY #orforglipron disappoints investors with 11.5% placebo-adjusted weight loss in Ph III #obesity trial; but clean safety profile and manufacturing advantage vs. oral peptides should still give it a commercial leg-up $NVS $VKTX https://t.co/XslNvIINBM
$VKTX at levels not seen since Feb
The $LLY chart looks quite bad. Lower highs and lower over the last year, with significant selling volume today. I think the 200-week MA is the next level to watch for potential support. https://t.co/nnN7EW0K0c