The S&P 500 index has experienced a decline of 9.53% over the last six months, despite a substantial increase of 24% in 2023 and a projected 25% rise in 2024. As of April 10, 2025, the index trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.2, based on Wall Street's consensus earnings estimates for 2025. Analysts suggest that for the index to achieve a 10% return moving forward, it must maintain its earnings power into 2026 without entering a recession. The S&P 500 is expected to report earnings growth of 7% for the first quarter of 2025, with 75% of companies typically exceeding earnings per share (EPS) estimates each season. Historically, actual earnings growth has surpassed estimates in 37 of the past 40 quarters. Additionally, a 14% EPS growth for the calendar year 2026 is anticipated, although initial expectations for 2025 earnings growth have been moderated from 15% to 11%.