Second-quarter earnings season is running ahead of expectations, according to the latest FactSet update from analyst John Butters. With roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents reporting, 82% have beaten consensus earnings-per-share estimates—the highest proportion since the third quarter of 2021 and above the five- and ten-year averages of 78% and 75%, respectively. The blended year-over-year EPS growth rate has climbed to 10.3%, more than doubling the 4.9% pace recorded at the end of June and marking a third straight quarter of double-digit profit growth. About 79% of companies have also topped revenue forecasts. Stronger results are starting to filter into outlooks. Analysts now look for calendar-year 2025 S&P 500 profits to rise 9.9%, and for earnings in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 to expand 7.6% and 7.0%, respectively. Even so, valuation measures remain elevated: the forward 12-month price-to-earnings multiple stands at 22.2, above its five- and ten-year averages, while the cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio sits near 38. The market’s rich pricing underscores investor confidence that the momentum in corporate earnings can be sustained into next year.
82% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q2, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/vjBcCjvbFj https://t.co/0CTYKr62x4
$SPY Q2 EPS started at $65.55, was cut to $62.83 pre-earnings (–4.2%) as we warned about this. • Final EPS: ~$63.80 (–2.7% from original) • Real growth ≈ 3% after inflation • S&P trades at 38x CAPE Earnings barely grew—yet stocks are priced for perfection. Massive 🫧🫧 https://t.co/rO6ZFu1WTZ
John Butters' new S&P 500 season update is out! 📈 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise for Q2 - which is the highest % since Q3 2021 (82%). 📈 The S&P 500 is reporting earnings growth of 10.3% for Q2 - which is the 3rd straight quarter of double-digit https://t.co/hsQJfSBa6A