UnitedHealth Group reinstated full-year guidance after a two-month suspension, projecting 2025 adjusted earnings of at least $16 a share—roughly $5 below the average Wall Street estimate. The company also posted second-quarter adjusted profit of $4.08 a share on revenue of $111.6 billion, missing consensus on earnings while matching expectations for sales. Executives said the lowered outlook reflects $6.5 billion in unforeseen medical costs spread across Medicare Advantage, Affordable Care Act and employer plans, as well as Medicaid. Medicare Advantage costs alone are running about 7.5% higher this year than previously assumed. Group Chief Executive Officer Stephen Hemsley and UnitedHealthcare head Tim Noel acknowledged the firm had “significantly underestimated” utilization trends and promised aggressive pricing and operational changes. To stem losses, UnitedHealth plans to exit several Medicare Advantage markets that now serve roughly 600,000 members and to incorporate higher cost expectations into 2026 bids due in the coming weeks. Management said it still expects a return to profit growth in 2026, calling $13 of earnings per share that year “reasonable.” Investors remained unconvinced. The stock fell as much as 7.5% to its lowest level since May, extending its year-to-date loss to about 40% and erasing hundreds of billions of dollars in market value. Analysts said the new floor could provide a baseline for future “beat-and-raise” performance, but confidence will depend on evidence that the cost surge is stabilising.