Barclays economists said Monday that the U.S. economy has entered a “stall state” and now faces a 50% probability of tipping into recession within the next two years. Their forecasting model places the odds of a downturn at 39% by mid-2026 and 56% by mid-2027, citing slowing output, softer payroll gains and other forward-looking indicators. The warning follows Wall Street Journal reporting on a stagnant labor market and adds to a chorus of caution from other prominent analysts. Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates that states representing roughly one-third of national output are already in recession or at high risk, while another third are essentially flat-lining. Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman separately argued that heavy investment in artificial-intelligence projects is currently propping up demand, but said the economy would be “likely” heading into recession if that boom fades. Taken together, the assessments reinforce concerns that the expansion is losing momentum even before the full effect of higher tariffs and immigration curbs filters through, leaving policymakers with limited room to maneuver.