Global oil consumption patterns have flipped, with the highest demand now occurring in the third quarter rather than the traditional fourth-quarter peak, according to a Bloomberg Opinion analysis by energy columnist Javier Blas. The gradual change, which has unfolded over roughly two decades, means the market may no longer receive its usual year-end support from seasonal buying. With refineries already running hard and OPEC+ supplies edging higher, the revised demand curve points to a potential crude surplus this coming winter. Absent an unexpected supply disruption, analysts warn that the shift is likely to cap prices during the final months of 2025, challenging producers that rely on stronger fourth-quarter sales.