

Bank of America (BofA) has indicated a potential shift in market sentiment where positive economic news could negatively impact equities. Ahead of the upcoming jobs report, analysts at BofA suggest that traders may interpret strong economic data as a signal of persistent inflation and prolonged high interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining above 4.5%. This marks a change from the previous trend observed since August, where both interest rates and stock prices had been rising concurrently. Market experts are expressing concerns that the current environment, characterized by a 'good news is bad news' mentality, may indicate a bearish outlook for equities, as the focus appears to be shifting from growth to rate adjustments. Additionally, various economic indicators such as global PMIs, tightening labor markets, and rising import prices are contributing to this sentiment, suggesting that high-yield investors may need to reassess the risks associated with credit versus rates.
Why the BB “safety” trade is actually the risk trade: 1) Global PMIs inflecting EVERYWHERE 2) Labor markets re-tightening 3) Import prices creeping higher 4) Dollar rolling over 5) Fed cuts being pushed out HY investors about to re-learn rates > credit risk
good news means better sentiment better sentiment does not mean buy
“The market is currently in a "good news is bad, and bad news is good" scenario. To me, that’s a bearish environment. If the market is focusing more on rate cuts than growth, it suggests the bulls are losing steam. “ https://t.co/RFF9XwpzdI