Mar 21, 03:50 PM

CTAs Take Record $52B Long in EU Stocks, $34B Short in U.S. Equities Amid Largest Spread in History

Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have taken a record divergence in equity positioning, with $52 billion long in European equities and $34 billion short in U.S. equities. Goldman Sachs highlights this as the largest spread between the two regions in history. CTAs are heavily short across major U.S. indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000, while maintaining extreme long positions in European indices like the DAX and Eurostoxx. Analysts note that short-covering in U.S. equities could lead to significant market movements. Recent data shows CTAs have turned net short on U.S. stocks for the first time since 2023, with specific short positions of $22 billion in the S&P 500, $6 billion in the Russell 2000, and $4 billion in the Nasdaq. Nomura estimates that CTAs could turn buyers if the S&P 500 reaches 6,014 (+7%), potentially unlocking $70 billion in sidelined flows. Goldman Sachs sets a similar target at 5,870 (+4%). In related market activity, speculative traders have adjusted their positions in crude oil futures, with net-length in Brent crude increasing by 52,853 contracts to 206,138, while net-length in WTI crude decreased by 19,250 contracts to 96,513. Additionally, VIX futures have flipped to net long, marking the largest nominal long position since early 2019.