Economic Surprise Index Hits Lowest Level Since January 2016, Points to 3% EPS Miss

The Economic Surprise Index, a measure of economic data relative to expectations, has reached its lowest level since January 2016, according to Bloomberg. Bank of America analyst Kwon noted that this substantial weakening in macro data should lead to inflation cooling, bringing macroeconomic conditions and inflation back in sync. Historical data suggests that such a low level in the Economic Surprise Index typically points to a 3% earnings per share (EPS) miss.