Exxon Sees Gas Demand Up 20% by 2050, Net-Zero Goal Slipping

Exxon Mobil said global demand for natural gas will climb more than 20% by 2050 as emerging economies boost electricity use and industries switch from coal, according to the U.S. super-major’s annual energy outlook released Thursday. The company argues gas will remain a key transition fuel, helping to cut carbon intensity while supporting industrial heat and grid reliability. Oil consumption is forecast to level off after 2030 yet remain above 100 million barrels per day through mid-century, leaving oil and gas combined at roughly 55% of the global energy mix—only one percentage point lower than today. Exxon plans to expand overall production by 18% in the next five years to meet the anticipated demand profile. The outlook suggests net-zero emissions across the energy system are unlikely by 2050. Exxon projects carbon-dioxide output will decline to about 27 billion metric tons—roughly 25% below current levels but more than twice the volume consistent with the United Nations’ net-zero pathway. The company said progress will depend on making low-carbon technologies more affordable and on policies that avoid energy-price spikes and supply constraints.