
Investor sentiment has shifted significantly, as evidenced by the latest data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) and other sentiment indices. The AAII survey reported a 12 percentage point increase in bearish investors over the past week, marking the largest rise since November 2022. This surge in bearish sentiment is mirrored by a drop in retail sentiment, which fell from a 1.78-to-1 bull-to-bear ratio to 1.08-to-1. Additionally, the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index saw a 17% decline in bullish sentiment over two weeks, the most substantial drop since the October 1987 crash. The stock/bond ratio has also plunged below -3.5, a rare event that has occurred only 14 times since 1966, indicating extreme fear among investors. Historically, such panic-driven selloffs have often reversed, with the S&P 500 typically recovering in the following months. Furthermore, S&P 500 sector correlations to the index have reached levels not seen in over six years, suggesting that equity investor confidence in the macro backdrop was overly high.
For the past year, stock & bond prices have mostly ebbed and flowed in tandem. Such positive #correlation has long been a big fear for many, as it reduces the benefit of holding both asset types. But what we just saw is a switch back, chart @ReutersMikeD https://t.co/GvANYescz1 https://t.co/qDqc5LU4li
The % of Bulls in the Investors Intelligence Sentiment Index moved down over 17% in the past 2 weeks (from 64.2% to 46.9%). That's the biggest 2-week % drop in Bulls since the October 1987 crash. $SPX https://t.co/4btxwRuUKX
For only the 14th time since 1966, the stock/bond ratio plunged below -3.5, signaling extreme fear among investors. Comparable panic-driven stock selloffs tended to reverse, especially over the following month. A year later, the S&P 500 was higher 92% of the time. https://t.co/KrJIfpI2S3