Apr 30, 01:03 PM

MSCI ACWI ex-USA Up 9% YTD, Outpacing S&P 500’s 6% Decline as S&P Underperforms Global Risk Signals by Up to 5.3%

Year-to-date performance data shows non-U.S. stocks, represented by the MSCI ACWI ex-USA index, have gained 9.0%, outperforming the S&P 500, which has declined by 6.0%. However, over the past 15 years, the S&P 500 has outpaced non-U.S. stocks significantly, with returns of 368% compared to 39% for ACWX. Diversification benefits from international equities remain limited due to high correlations with the S&P 500, ranging from 0.75 to 0.83. In recent market activity, a cross-asset model tracking risk sentiment and asset signals has indicated consistent underperformance of the S&P 500 relative to global assets correlated with risk. Over the last 20 days, the S&P 500 has underperformed the model's signals by between 3.73% and 5.28% cumulatively. Ahead of the New York market open on April 30 and May 1, the model forecasted mixed short-term S&P 500 movements, ranging from losses of up to 0.43% to gains of 0.11%, with futures showing corresponding fluctuations. Signals from commodities have been the least bullish, while those from global equities and foreign exchange have been more positive. Despite recent U.S. equity rallies narrowing the performance gap, the S&P World ex-U.S. index still leads the S&P U.S. LargeMidCap by 15.7% year-to-date, down from 19.1% at the start of the previous week, indicating ongoing relative strength in international developed markets.

#USA #New York

Written with ChatGPT (GPT-4).