The number of Americans buying their first home has fallen to the lowest level on record, according to updated National Association of Realtors data presented at the group’s 2025 Forecast Summit. Roughly 1.14 million people bought a home for the first time last year, down from nearly 3.2 million in 2004 and about half the long-term average, underscoring the squeeze created by high prices and elevated mortgage rates. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said existing homeowners remain "in a healthy situation," with strong equity and low delinquency rates, but described a widening gap for newcomers shut out by limited supply and affordability pressures. Yun cut his projection for overall home sales in 2025 yet signalled a “more positive” outlook for 2026 as financing conditions are expected to ease. Economists at the summit noted that robust job creation and a 1 percent population increase—driven 84 percent by international migration—are generating pent-up demand. Recent growth in mortgage applications hints at willingness to enter the market once costs moderate. Migration trends show the South, particularly Texas and the Carolinas, continuing to attract the largest share of movers, potentially shaping where first-time buying might rebound earliest.