The New York Federal Reserve's latest survey reveals that Americans' inflation expectations for the medium term have risen to their highest level since mid-2022. Specifically, the one-year inflation expectation in April was 3.63%, slightly up from 3.58% previously, while the three-year inflation expectation increased to 3.2% from 3.0% in March. Conversely, the five-year inflation expectation decreased to 2.7% from 2.9%. Additionally, the projected year-ahead rise in home prices increased to 3.3% from 3.0%. Consumer sentiment data also indicates a decline in median household income growth expectations to 2.61%, the lowest in four years, alongside a rise in the percentage of consumers who do not expect to be able to make minimum debt payments over the next three months, reaching 13.94%. Furthermore, consumer confidence in the stock market has weakened considerably, with 49% of Americans expecting lower stock prices over the next 12 months, marking the highest bearish sentiment in 14 years and doubling over the past three months. For 11 consecutive weeks, more than half of surveyed investors have expressed negative market outlooks, reflecting a sustained bearish trend.
Consumer confidence in the economy and the stock market has plunged in recent months. While this is invariably reported as bad news, @jaykaeppel reminds us in a recent report that such reports ignore that the stock market is a discounting mechanism. 🔗 Read @jaykaeppel's May 9 https://t.co/IaT2SUDBco
gs: "in the history of this survey, investors have never been this consistently bearish… for 11 straight weeks, >50% or respondents have been negative on the market" https://t.co/2rgZba5jso
‼️US consumers are BEARISH on stocks as if there is a bear market: 49% of Americans expected LOWER stock prices over the next 12 months in April, the highest share in 14 YEARS. The share has DOUBLED in just 3 months. Truly incredible, read more..👇 https://t.co/uk94uij2sH