Recent discussions have highlighted the evolution of prediction and betting markets over the past two decades and their potential impact on cryptocurrency in the coming years. Experts noted the emergence of private prediction markets that allow only proven participants to engage. New initiatives in this space have been launched by various companies, including those behind Perplexity AI, Polymarket, and Vega Protocol. Polymarket has reported significant activity, with a betting volume of $1.32 billion and a total of 6.9 million bets placed. The success of prediction markets raises questions about their effectiveness and the metrics used to measure their success, particularly in identifying profitable outcomes from unpredictable events, often referred to as 'black swans.'