Retail investors have set a new record by purchasing a net $4.1 billion in U.S. stocks within a three-hour window on Monday, surpassing the previous high by over $1 billion, according to JPMorgan data. This surge in retail buying contrasts sharply with the behavior of institutional investors and hedge funds, who remain bearish on U.S. equities. Hedge funds have increased their short equity futures exposure by $25 billion over the last three Commitments of Traders (COT) reports, marking the largest increase in at least a decade. Short interest on the median S&P 500 stock has risen to approximately 2.3%, the highest level in seven years and above the long-term historical average for the first time since the 2021 short squeeze, according to Goldman Sachs. Hedge fund gross leverage has reached record levels as a result of this elevated short interest. Additionally, short positions on Nasdaq stocks as a share of open interest hit 41%, the highest in four years. Institutional investors are also underweight U.S. equities, with about 40% reported as underweight in early May, the lowest allocation since May 2023 and comparable to levels seen before the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, sentiment toward the U.S. dollar has become increasingly pessimistic, with currency options traders holding the most bearish 12-month outlook on the dollar in history and 20% of surveyed fund managers underweighting the dollar, the highest in 19 years. Bank of America fund manager surveys reveal that investors are overweight utilities, bonds, European stocks, and bank stocks, while underweighting energy, U.S., global, and technology stocks. This divergence between retail investors aggressively buying and institutional investors selling at rapid rates is unprecedented in recent history.
🚨Institutional investors remain BEARISH: Short interest on the median S&P 500 stock hit 2.3%, a 7-year HIGH. At the same time, hedge fund shorts on Nasdaq stocks as a share of open interest hit 41%, the most in 4 YEARS. All while retail investors have bought the most ever. https://t.co/g4vmu5ecwD
Hedge funds are shorting. Novel https://t.co/R40In0ixK9
⚠️Such a divergence between retail and professional investors has NEVER happened before: Hedge funds and institutional investors have sold US stocks at one of the fastest rates on record. At the same time, retail investors bought the most ever. Who will give up first? https://t.co/waoRlrB5nf