The S&P 500 earnings surprises have reached their lowest levels since the fourth quarter of 2022. Despite stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings results, consensus now anticipates S&P 500 EPS growth of just 5.4% year-over-year in Q3, a decrease from the July 10 estimate of 7.6%. This downward revision trend is observed across both large- and small-cap companies. Analysts from Piper forecast a potential drop of the S&P 500 towards 5,000 in the coming weeks, while Morgan Stanley projects it could finish the year closer to 6,000. The market is grappling with expectations of mid-teens earnings growth and approximately 3% real GDP growth, which may lead to disappointments compared to the start of the year when expectations were lower.