
The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) is expected to see significant movement by the end of Friday, driven by the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) jobs number. Options are pricing in about a 1% move for $SPX and $SPY, with implied volatility around 24. The expected range for $SPX is between 5755 and 5630, and for $SPY, it is between 573 and 561.50. A 65-point move is anticipated, with the 5700 strike acting as a potential magnet. JPM Desk scenarios suggest various outcomes based on NFP results: over 200k jobs could see $SPX flat or up 0.5%, while less than 110k jobs could lead to a 1.25-2% drop. A 56-point range is also being priced in for $SPX tomorrow, with a 20% chance of 110k-140k jobs leading to a 0.5-1.5% fall, and a 30% chance of 160k-200k jobs resulting in a 1-1.5% increase.
$SPX 5700/5750 0dte defended, basically the range today. https://t.co/10QgIg6uqj
$SPX butterfly's for today I rolled the dice with since been a great few weeks and upside today was likely based on breadth and flows all week holding up well.. targeted that 5750 SPX strike so one of the call flys went from 3.45 to 6.25 so far https://t.co/UTl7BVcUk2
JPM Desk NFP scenarios: >200k (5% chance): SPX flat - 0.5% higher 160k - 200k (30% chance): SPX adds 1-1.5% 140k - 160k (40% chance): SPX adds 0.75-1.25% 110k - 140k (20% chance): SPX falls 0.5-1.5% <110k (5% chance): SPX falls 1.25-2%

