The S&P 500 is showing elevated valuation metrics as its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen to approximately 21.5, nearing the post-2021 peak of 22.3 recorded in December. This marks an increase of 2.5 points since late April 2025. Despite a 18.9% loss in the S&P 500 from February to April 2025, the P/E ratio remained about 30% above its historical median of 19.4, and it is approaching bubble territory at 30x. Earnings estimates for the S&P 500 in 2025 have been revised downward to under $260 per share, with expected earnings growth of 9.2% and a P/E ratio rising to 23. For 2026, earnings estimates have also declined to below $295 per share, with projected growth of 13.4% and a P/E ratio of 20. The technology sector within the S&P 500 has the highest exposure to global customers and suppliers compared to other sectors. Tech companies’ estimated earnings grew about 50% over 2023 and 2024, while their share prices surged 112% during the same period.
"S&P 500 tech companies’ estimated earnings grew about 50% in 2023 and 2024, yet their share prices jumped 112%." @callieabost https://t.co/imPrzEkQfl
"Tech has the highest exposure to global customers and suppliers of any sector in the S&P 500." @callieabost https://t.co/WkbStQ8e5J
The S&P 500 2026 earnings estimate has declined to under $295, with growth at 13.4% and PE at 20. https://t.co/xYi83U2i6w