The S&P 500 has seen a sharp recovery, turning positive for the year after being down over 18% just a month ago. This recovery has been accompanied by a notable drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which fell from over 40 to below 20 in record time. The VIX's decline from a high of 60.13 to around 18-19 this week reflects a shift from extreme fear to near extreme greed among investors. The easing of tariff risks, following a 90-day moratorium on reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. and a temporary reduction of tariffs between the U.S. and China, has contributed to this market sentiment shift. The S&P 500 has risen 18% in just 25 trading days, a pace that has only occurred five times historically, with the index showing positive returns 100% of the time 250 days later, averaging a 30% gain. Analysts suggest that this rapid reversal in the VIX has typically been followed by gains in the S&P 500. The current market environment, characterized by lower uncertainty and inflation expectations, along with higher earnings growth, has led to revised year-end outlooks for the S&P 500 to 6,500 by Goldman Sachs and Ed Yardeni. The S&P 500 has achieved 4-week returns of over 10% while maintaining negative 12-week returns, all while closing within -10% of its all-time high (ATH) weekly close. The VIX has also reached its lowest 9-day level since the S&P 500 notched its ATH on February 19.
Um 'urso' e um 'touro' andam à solta em Wall Street: como o S&P 500 registou uma das maiores recuperações da história https://t.co/uiLq8ck1u5
TGIalmostF. Investors remain in a cheerful (not fearful) mood. The $VIX fell another 4% today. Below 18 for the first time since late March. Ciao.
9-day $VIX lowest since when the SPX notched its ATH on Feb 19 https://t.co/xpcaPNniyv