
The S&P 500 index has shown continued underperformance relative to global asset signals, with recent models indicating a cumulative underperformance of -7.55% over the last 20 days. As of April 11, 2025, the S&P is projected to open down by 0.22%, while futures are up by 0.21%. In contrast, international markets, particularly European, Japanese, and Hong Kong stocks, have outperformed the S&P by 7-12 points, a notable decrease from previous peaks. Over the past six months, the S&P 500 has declined by 9.53%, although it posted gains of 24% in 2023 and 25% in 2024. Analysts suggest a potential shift in capital flows, with indications that certain assets, such as gold and foreign stocks, are gaining relative strength amid the volatility in U.S. equities.
I’m long for a bounce in US stocks But over time there’s still way more upside ex US, GDX, etc The great capital rotation has begun. Go back to 2002-2006 thematics and look at what worked (although don’t repeat the housing bubble) https://t.co/JruBSeoiSg
Lost in the volatility and declines for US stocks this year is the relative strength of certain assets, particularly gold and cheap foreign stocks.
The S&P 500 is -9.53% in the last six months and tradfi accounts are posting as if the world is coming to an end. Context: • S&P 500 2023: +24% • S&P 500 2024: +25% SIGNAL versus noise.







