Silver has been experiencing a notable rally, approaching multi-year highs driven by surging industrial demand and a historically elevated gold-to-silver ratio. Silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are gaining increased attention from investors seeking portfolio diversification, though experts advise caution due to associated risks. Despite the price momentum, quantitative trend-following strategies (Q-CTAs) and systematic flows have only recently begun to recover, suggesting potential for further catch-up buying if the rally continues. Concurrently, gold has seen a rise of over 30% in value this year, supported by growing demand from central banks, particularly in emerging markets, where gold purchases have increased fivefold since 2022. This trend is contributing to the emergence of a new secular bull market for gold, reinforcing recommendations to significantly increase gold allocations in investment portfolios. Gold miners and junior gold miners, as represented by ETFs such as GDX and GDXJ, have outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date, with gains nearing 50%, while the broader equity market remains flat. Analysts note that goldโs strong performance may be a precursor to a downturn in the U.S. stock market, which has doubled since 2019, with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a nearly 20% decline in crude oil prices also influencing market dynamics. The gold-to-silver ratio remains a focal point for market participants, with ongoing analysis seeking signals from its extreme levels.
The outperformance of gold YTD has been eeerily similar to energy in 2022. Luckily microcaps are getting in on some of action. https://t.co/5qG3gw6N1x
What do you think about Silver? CTAs been chasing. https://t.co/5JCu5U22kT
๐ Gold's value rose by over a third in the past year. On this Viewsroom podcast, @Breakingviews columnists debate the degree to which investors may be seeking a hedge against the whims of states https://t.co/SkGQVFxPzD