
Recent analyses indicate a notable shift in the stock-bond correlation, which has transitioned from a positive to a negative correlation. This change suggests that stock and bond prices are now moving in opposite directions, potentially reducing overall portfolio volatility. The 3-month correlation between the S&P 500 and the 10-year yield is decreasing, indicating that bonds may regain their role as a hedge in investment portfolios. Additionally, short interest in the ETF for 20+ year U.S. government bonds, represented by $TLT, has surged to a record $9 billion, tripling over the past two years. This increase in short interest coincides with a roughly 40% decline in $TLT since the 2020 crisis, raising questions about whether this presents a rare buying opportunity for bonds.
Rethinking the Stock-Bond Correlation https://t.co/zI7injHfpm https://t.co/bnpjn4VNua
๐จThis is truly incredible: Short interest in ETF $TLT of 20+ year US government bonds hit a record $9 BILLION. The number has TRIPLED in just 2 years. This comes as $TLT has declined ~40% since the 2020 Crisis as yields have risen. Is this a rare opportunity to buy bonds? https://t.co/LQ5KLdrXM9
๐ S&P 500 & 10Y Yield: The 3-month correlation is dropping, signaling bonds may act as a hedge again. Are markets shifting? ๐ง https://t.co/WWM4Z3RWPd



