The long-dated US Treasury ETF, TLT, is facing significant challenges as it trades below its 200-day moving average for the first time in four years, marking its fourth consecutive year of negative price returns. Year-to-date, TLT has declined by 7%, and from its September high, it has fallen by 10%. Despite these struggles, retail investors have shown strong interest, with TLT's market capitalization increasing from $10 billion in 2019 to $60 billion today. Current economic indicators suggest rising inflation and interest rates, alongside decreasing employment, raising concerns about potential bond market contagion. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury has recently reversed to approximately 4.38%, further complicating the outlook for TLT and the broader bond market.