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The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has surged to its highest level in over two years, reaching 108, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, expectations of fiscal easing, and weaker-than-expected business activity data from Europe. The dollar's appreciation follows a pattern observed after Trump's 2016 victory, with the current rally marking an eight-week streak of gains, the longest in 14 months. Analysts suggest that this first phase of dollar strength could be followed by a second, larger rise if the U.S. imposes tariffs. The dollar's rise has been bolstered by interest rate differentials, a safe-haven demand amid escalating global uncertainties, and S&P Global PMI data. The index is up 0.89% intraday.
$USD is surging here in Q4, more than seemed likely in August and September. Still, the powerful forces are intact, and the divergence between the US and other high income countries is stark. Be prepared for the week ahead: https://t.co/y8YXRE8dVT https://t.co/V5HKpFkuhY
The Trump rally 1. Markets are in a repeat of 2016 2. USD is up 4% on expected fiscal easing. 3. In 2016, USD rose 6% through December. 4. This 1st stage of Dollar strength can still run. 5. Tariffs start a 2nd stage of Dollar strength. 6. That stage will spark lots of EM chaos. https://t.co/6wlPh3sqGG
The fall in Euro is conjuring up lots of narratives. So far, the fall just repeats what happened after Trump won in 2016, so this is markets pricing expectations of US fiscal easing and higher growth. It is NOT markets pricing Europe's economic stagnation. That is still coming... https://t.co/QNQSBELNjp
