The U.S. labor market experienced a notable slowdown in job growth in July 2025, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 104,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, but the report revealed substantial downward revisions to previous months' job gains. Specifically, May and June payrolls were revised down by a combined total of 258,000 jobs, marking the second-largest downward revision in over 45 years. May's job additions were adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000. These revisions contribute to a total downward adjustment of 461,000 jobs for 2025 so far, following a 625,000 downward revision in 2024. Analysts note that such large and consistent downward revisions are rare outside of recessionary periods. Furthermore, private sector hiring rates have fallen to recession-level lows, with June's hiring rate at 3.6%, comparable to levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis and below those of the 2001 recession. The household survey indicated that approximately 260,000 Americans lost their jobs in July, with a three-month moving average of job losses at 287,667, the second-lowest reading in five years. Additionally, Black unemployment rose to 7.2% in July, the highest rate since the pandemic-era peak of 7.6% in October 2021. Projections suggest that job numbers for the nine-month period ending December 2024 may be revised down by nearly 800,000, indicating that nonfarm payrolls were overstated by about 88,888 jobs per month during that time.
⚠️What is happening here? The US job numbers will likely be REVISED DOWN by nearly 800,000 for the 9-month period ending December 2024, according to QCEW data. This means non-farm payrolls were OVERSTATED by ~88,888 jobs each month during this period👇 https://t.co/hwEZwXkV6W
BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT SOARS TO 7.2% IN JULY — HIGHEST SINCE PANDEMIC-ERA PEAK OF 7.6% IN OCT 2021: U.S. LABOR DEPT
⚠️US hiring in the private sector is at RECESSION levels: The US private hiring rate fell to 3.6% in June, one of the lowest levels since the 2020 CRISIS. This is in line with the Financial Crisis levels and even BELOW the 2001 recession readings.👇 https://t.co/hwEZwXkV6W