U.S. natural gas futures experienced a narrowing 12-month spread by $0.37 (54%) despite a rise in front-month prices, with the July contract increasing 16% to $3.95 and the front-month price up 24% to $3.63 for the week ending May 2. However, net long positions in U.S. natural gas decreased by 18 billion cubic feet (70%) for the week ending April 25, with prices falling 9% from $3.29 to $2.98. In crude oil markets, ICE Brent net long positions fell 14% due to short covering, with long positions decreasing 1% and shorts rising 17%, while Brent futures prices increased 1% to $66.65. WTI net long positions rose 5%, with prices increasing 1% to $63.09 for the same week. Despite these gains, Brent crude oil prices dropped to their lowest level since February 2021, and WTI prices declined by 4.6% to $55.58 during Sunday evening trading. Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have been aggressively increasing short positions in crude oil amid falling prices, contributing to downward pressure. CTA positioning shows a divergence with strong long momentum in grains and metals such as gold, soy, corn, and copper, contrasted by continued short pressure in soft commodities and energy products including sugar, cocoa, and Brent crude. U.S. natural gas open interest fell to its lowest since June 2024, and Brent-WTI net long positions decreased 4% with open interest down 28 million barrels, levels substantially lower than averages from 2017-21 and 2022-24. Overall, systematic flows indicate a bearish tone for crude oil and soft commodities, while agricultural and metal sectors maintain a bullish bias.
CTA positioning in crude oil has turned sharply negative just as prices break lower. Systematic pressure is building as trend-followers add to shorts, potentially accelerating downside unless momentum shifts. https://t.co/Sw41um0AJ7
CTA positioning shows a clear split: strong long momentum in grains & metals (gold, soy, corn, copper) vs. continued short pressure in softs & energy (sugar, cocoa, Brent). Systematic flows are rotating hardābullish bias for ags/metals, bearish tone for crude & softs. https://t.co/WSIaS2tCiM
Brent Crude #oil down to its lowest since February 2021 https://t.co/xQR5Y6P8ka