Economic indicators and investor behavior in the United States reflect a complex and cautious outlook amid signs of economic contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI index fell to 48.7 in April, marking the second consecutive month of contraction, with business production dropping to 44.0, the lowest since the 2020 crisis. New orders have contracted for three straight months. Consumer confidence has declined to its lowest level in three years, with inflation expectations rising sharply to 7.3% over the next 12 months, the highest in 44 years. Americans' perceived likelihood of a recession over the next year surged to 72%, the highest in two years, while expectations for their family’s financial situation fell to the lowest point since 2022. Despite these concerns, recession probabilities have reportedly declined among professional investors. Fund managers sold U.S. bonds at the fastest pace in nearly 22 years and sold U.S. energy and technology stocks at one of the fastest rates on record over the past three months, reallocating to utility stocks and government bonds. Conversely, retail investors have been buying aggressively, purchasing a record $50 billion in U.S. equities since early April and increasing their market share to 36%, well above the 10-year average of 12%. Long equity positioning also soared last week by the largest amount in history according to Deutsche Bank. Additionally, 18% of fund managers managing $458 billion in assets are underweight global technology stocks, the highest since the 2022 bear market, while global recession expectations among institutional investors have dropped sharply from 42% in April to just 1%. These trends illustrate a divergence between professional and retail investor sentiment amid ongoing economic uncertainty.