VIX Shows Seasonal Shifts as Goldman Predicts July Rally Peak; August VIX Futures at 15.35, October at 18.10

Recent analysis indicates that the volatility index, known as the VIX, may be experiencing significant fluctuations as seasonal patterns shift. Goldman Sachs has suggested that the July rally typically peaks around mid-month, implying that the peak summer seasonality may be behind us. The average fund flows for August have historically been negative for mutual funds and ETFs since 1996, indicating a challenging month ahead. Current data shows that August VIX futures are priced at 15.35, while October futures are at 18.10, suggesting an increasing expectation of volatility as the U.S. elections approach. The term structure of VIX futures is steepening, which has historically pointed towards heightened volatility. Despite a recent surge in the VIX, some analysts believe that the current market selloff is merely a technical correction, with expectations for a market rebound next week. The VIX is not yet indicating panic, as its term structure remains in contango, where current values are lower than future values. Analysts expect VIX to decline until late August or early September, aligning with typical seasonal trends.