14th News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Fair elections in 2028

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

War is declared against another nation

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

NATO invokes Article 5

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump gets shot

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Median wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026

The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60

The largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap

The U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%

CPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between -2% and +18% annually

Median household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income

Labor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%

The Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%

The S&P 500 is within -60% to +225% of the February 2026 level

“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026

The college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor's degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%

The top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%

U.S. GDP is within -30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)

Combined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%

The top 1%’s income share is less than 35%

Nonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period

Aisha Wahab

Other

Matt Ortega

23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)

22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)

11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)

26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)

20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)

25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)

27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)

6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)

12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)

3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)

5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)

15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)

24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)

1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)

4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)

7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)

8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)

9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)

10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)

13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)

17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)

21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)

2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)

14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)

16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)

YES

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES