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15 News

When will Starship flight 15 happen?

Jul 12, 9:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3176660

OptionProbability

Before 2027-04-01

Before 2027-03-01

Before 2027-02-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-16

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

94

93

92

87

68

49

17

1

0

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2333825

OptionProbability

5

4

6 - 7

3

8 - 9

10 - 11

12 - 15

0

1

2

27

24

21

12

8

3

2

1

1

1

Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?

Aug 28, 12:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29%chance

627701

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

814

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

5.22%chance

227665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4263

235

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.08%chance

225803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13025

7677

Does Starship flight 150 happen before New Glenn 15?

Jun 17, 2:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.41%chance

91319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1628

614

Will at least 50 people have landed on Mars within 15 years after the 1st?

Feb 9, 7:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.47%chance

201180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

686

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

54%chance

171175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1304

572

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

30.77%chance

9959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1500

667

Will an English encyclopedia exceeding 15 billion words be created before May 2028?

May 23, 10:15 PMMay 1, 7:00 AM

24.54%chance

24710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

868

Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

Dec 11, 3:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.76%chance

12527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

973

Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes?

Jan 29, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.79%chance

16303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

810

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