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Prediction markets for 15

[ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1914433

OptionProbability

3

2

4

6 - 7

1

5

8 - 9

10 - 11

12 - 15

0

23

21

13

12

11

11

4

2

2

1

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.32%chance

143736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11916

8392

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

35.71%chance

623087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

440

Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on August 29, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:08 PMAug 29, 6:08 PM

60.98%chance

22750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

800

Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026?

Mar 2, 6:10 PMSep 29, 6:08 PM

60.98%chance

22750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1250

800

Will 15 or more starship and super-heavy launches be required for Artemis 3?

Feb 19, 5:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.76%chance

222356

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

982

Will at least 50 people have landed on Mars within 15 years after the 1st?

Feb 9, 7:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.47%chance

201180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

686

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

43%chance

16987

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

765

If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?

Dec 19, 2:10 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

70.33%chance

27542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

953

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

47.56%chance

8509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes?

Jan 29, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.58%chance

15293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

834

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