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Prediction markets for 15

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Jan 3, 1:57 PMAug 15, 10:59 PM

15.45%chance

206717

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2340

427

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

34%chance

552980

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

467

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

9202

Will housing prices in Arlington VA fall by more then 15% in two years.

Feb 27, 2:59 PMMar 2, 4:59 AM

26.76%chance

92040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1658

607

Will at least 50 people have landed on Mars within 15 years after the 1st?

Feb 9, 7:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56.47%chance

201180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

686

Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?

Feb 19, 11:35 PMFeb 1, 8:00 AM

48.16%chance

15889

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

667

If I livestream a game of chess with my partner and run a market on the outcome, will that market get at least 15 traders?

Dec 19, 2:10 AMJul 1, 7:00 AM

70.33%chance

27542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1086

953

Conditional on at least 15 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?

Dec 11, 3:13 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.76%chance

12527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

973

Any change to the list of 15 US Government executive departments through mid 2027

Jan 2, 8:12 AMJun 30, 9:59 PM

50%chance

8459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Rivian R2 deliveries begin before June 15, 2026?

Mar 8, 4:18 AMJul 1, 3:59 AM

41.39%chance

12298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

892

Will at least 15% of US adults in 2030 have ever used psilocybin/magic mushrooms in their lifetimes?

Jan 29, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.58%chance

15293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

834

AJ Bronkhorst sits independently by January 15, 2026?

Dec 3, 6:55 AMJan 14, 11:59 PM

49.55%chance

3200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

991

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