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Prediction markets for 1st

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.72%chance

708696396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22531

4727

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

98.93%chance

157585755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17551

1110

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

8.13%chance

127235268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3153

961

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.02%chance

2413122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10393

1957

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in New Hampshire's 1st District?

Nov 6, 3:01 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

212502

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

86

14

0

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Indiana's 1st District?

Nov 6, 1:39 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

29002

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

82

18

0

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

327878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8632

3470

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's 1st District?

Nov 6, 3:20 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

26003

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

74

26

0

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Ohio's 1st District?

Nov 6, 3:13 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

25002

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

68

32

0

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Arizona's 1st District?

Nov 6, 1:02 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

24012

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

62

38

0

Who will be actively engaged in major leadership capacity in Project Meridian on 1st November 2028? DoD/DoW

Oct 3, 2:04 AMNov 1, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Newt Gingrich

Palmer Luckey

Elon Musk

50

50

50

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