4th News

Will the price of a Costco hot dog Combo raise above $1.50 by Star Wars Day 2028? (May 4th)

Dec 13, 5:56 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

9.81%chance

204128

OptionVotes

YES

1363

916

Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?

Oct 4, 3:06 PMJul 5, 6:59 AM

86.75%chance

353529

OptionVotes

YES

2533

339

Which of these movie franchises with 3 entries will get a 4th released before Jan 1st 2028?

Jan 19, 5:09 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

211478

OptionProbability

Beverly Hills Cop

Kingsman

Trolls (Dreamworks)

Austin Powers

Human Centipede

Re-Animator

Blade

Cars (Disney)

Riddick

Guardians of the Galaxy

Bill and Ted

Hostel

Rush Hour

Big Momma's (House)

Cabin Fever

Cloverfield

Charlie's Angels

Creepshow

Daddy Day Care

Unbreakable / M Night Shyamalan's Eastrail 117 Trilogy

Meet the Parents / Fockers

My Big Fat Greek Wedding

Sharktopus

Zeitgeist (Documentary)

Honey I Shrunk the Kids

Fifty Shades

Free Willy

Mighty Ducks

Oh, God!

Ace Ventura

Back to the Future

Godfather

Bloodrayne

100

Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?

Aug 31, 2:24 AMOct 3, 11:59 PM

18.63%chance

71112

OptionVotes

YES

2090

478

Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?

Nov 13, 4:04 AMJul 7, 6:59 AM

75.79%chance

13666

OptionVotes

YES

177

Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?

Jul 27, 3:31 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

7%chance

13513

OptionVotes

YES

364

Thomas Massie wins Kentucky's 4th Republican primary in 2026?

Sep 10, 2:53 AMMay 19, 12:59 AM

68.51%chance

8494

OptionVotes

YES

147

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?

Aug 11, 9:43 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

41%chance

10296

OptionVotes

YES

1025

976

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Aug 11, 9:19 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

45.34%chance

12271

OptionVotes

YES

1015

971

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

Apr 6, 12:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.03%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

158

My friend, a Yale Economics PhD in his 4th year, will be in academia in 2029.

Feb 12, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.64%chance

999

OptionVotes

YES

177

162

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Dec 8, 11:28 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

389

OptionProbability

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

≥45% & D +2.5 or more (Trump good, Republicans bad)

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Prediction markets for 4th

Prediction markets for 4th

Prediction markets for 4th

Will the price of a Costco hot dog Combo raise above $1.50 by Star Wars Day 2028? (May 4th)

Will Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?

Which of these movie franchises with 3 entries will get a 4th released before Jan 1st 2028?

Jair Bolsonaro leaves Brazilian jurisdiction before October 4th 2026?

Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?

Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?

Thomas Massie wins Kentucky's 4th Republican primary in 2026?

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Will the 4th passage of KRYPTOS be solved by 2028?

My friend, a Yale Economics PhD in his 4th year, will be in academia in 2029.

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

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