4th News

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Nevada's 4th District?

Nov 6, 3:06 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

215002

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

Will the price of a Costco hot dog Combo raise above $1.50 by Star Wars Day 2028? (May 4th)

Dec 13, 5:56 AMMay 5, 3:59 AM

13.74%chance

224194

OptionVotes

YES

981

966

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Aug 11, 9:19 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

23%chance

131016

OptionVotes

YES

1716

646

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Michigan's 4th District?

Nov 6, 2:48 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

2352

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?

Aug 11, 9:43 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

41%chance

10296

OptionVotes

YES

1025

976

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Dec 8, 11:28 PMDec 16, 5:59 AM

390

OptionProbability

35.0-44.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (voters unsatisfied for 4th election in a row)

35.0-44.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Dems chose better candidate)

35.0-44.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump meh, Reps chose better candidate)

≥45% & R +2.5 or more (Trump good)

≤34.9% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (ultrapolarized negative partisanship, Democracy is cooked)

≥45% & D +2.4 to R +2.4 (less polarization?)

≤34.9% & D +2.5 or more (Trump bad)

≤34.9% & R +2.5 or more (Trump bad, Republicans good)

≥45% & D +2.5 or more (Trump good, Republicans bad)

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Florida's 4th District?

Nov 6, 1:22 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Republican Party

Democratic Party

Other

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Arizona's 4th District?

Nov 6, 1:03 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in New York's 4th District?

Nov 6, 3:07 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in California's 4th District?

Nov 6, 1:05 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Oregon's 4th District?

Nov 6, 3:19 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Massachusetts's 4th District?

Nov 6, 2:43 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

4th News

Prediction markets for 4th

Prediction markets for 4th

Prediction markets for 4th

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Nevada's 4th District?

Will the price of a Costco hot dog Combo raise above $1.50 by Star Wars Day 2028? (May 4th)

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Michigan's 4th District?

Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?

Trump Popularity (538 Approval Rating) on July 4th, 2028 vs. 2028 Presidential Election Tipping Point Margin

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Florida's 4th District?

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Arizona's 4th District?

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in New York's 4th District?

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in California's 4th District?

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Oregon's 4th District?

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. House election in Massachusetts's 4th District?

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