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Prediction markets for 50 St

Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?

Oct 30, 4:19 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

44%chance

145153175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

945

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

Aug 13, 7:26 PMAug 26, 10:59 PM

15770618

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance (Vice President)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Donald J. Trump (45th & 47th President)

Pete Buttigieg (Biden Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Donald Trump Jr.

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Mark Cuban

Wes Moore (Maryland Governor)

Greg Abbot (Texas Governor)

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Roy Cooper (North Carolina Governor)

John Fetterman (Pennsylvania Senator)

31

24

7

6

5

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will at least 50% of Trump's starting cabinet be replaced by the end of his term?

Nov 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

16626677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1010

990

Will there be 50 states in the union by the end of 2036?

Jul 3, 3:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.6%chance

1313626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10535

9447

Will there still be exactly 50 US states by 2030?

Apr 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.69%chance

683135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2027

1010

Will there stop being 50 states in the USA before 2032?

Dec 18, 6:45 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.6%chance

412619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

880

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

52.67%chance

261277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

424

Will the United States of America consist of 50 states by 2030?

Dec 21, 3:48 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

74.01%chance

351164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

600

Will over 50% of US trans youth live in states banning medically recommended care (incl. HRT, blockers) by end-2028?

Jun 4, 10:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.56%chance

14740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

607

Overhead electric distribution still primarily built on wood poles in 50 years?

Apr 22, 7:49 PMApr 22, 11:59 PM

56.09%chance

11561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1130

885

Will more than 50% of humans born before 2023 and still alive by 2050 exist in a biological substrate?

Mar 27, 3:15 AMJan 1, 3:00 AM

78.24%chance

11489

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

981

Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030

Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

60.48%chance

15409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1241

801

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