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Prediction markets for 85

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

Nov 8, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63%chance

239238329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5784

4452

By when will 85% be reached on the public evaluation set on ARC-AGI-Pub?

Jun 29, 4:35 AMJan 3, 7:59 AM

6556376

OptionProbability

01/01/2030

01/01/2028

01/01/2026

01/01/2025

95

92

87

0

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

Nov 8, 11:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.19%chance

8336738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

938

Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?

Jan 22, 4:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.93%chance

208398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17074

8778

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?

Dec 24, 2:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

293022

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

Other

Meta

xAI

39

35

9

9

4

4

Will Hollow Knight: Silksong get an 85 or above on OpenCritic? (a website which is like metacritic)

Dec 30, 9:02 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

87.09%chance

311770

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1318

916

Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 85 or above?

Oct 31, 5:52 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75.7%chance

401702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

951

Will US life expectancy in 2075 be 85 or above?

Oct 31, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.75%chance

241268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1272

912

Will life expectancy in any state of the US reach 85 years before end of 2035?

Apr 29, 5:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

35.5%chance

16651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

742

Boeing 2025 Revenue exceeds $85 Billion

Mar 14, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

25.71%chance

3102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will Python 3.11 reach 85% readiness before end of life?

May 13, 7:41 PMOct 24, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will Python 3.12 reach 85% readiness before end of life?

May 13, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.09%chance

215

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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