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OptionProbability
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
A team principle gets replaced during the season
Hamilton gets a podium finish
WDC winner wins their first title
Lewis Hamilton wins a feature race
Kim Kardashian shown on F1TV in Ferrari garage during main race or qualifying broadcast
race cancelled or moved due to military operations
Esteban Ocon replaced before season end
We get a podium with three WDC champions
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
Verstappen finishes 2nd in the WDC
The top three drivers in the WDC will be from three different teams
No pit crew injuries during any race.
Eight GP without a full safety car deployment.
Lewis Hamilton gets a podium
George Russell finishes season behind Leclerc in standings
Bottas scores more points than Perez
Abu Dhabi and Qatar races cancelled
WDC 1 & 2 from same team
Hadjar scores at least half as many points as Verstappen
A technical directive changes regulations to stop a dominant team or forces to change something important in the cars (e.g., flexible wings in 2025, Ferrari in 2022 with TD39)
A rear-end accident because of super-clipping
Christian Horner starts a team principle position
Lance Stroll announces retirement
Neither Cadillac nor Audi finish WCC at the bottom
Hannah Schmitz departure from RBR announced
A driver gets a race ban due to penalty points
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
Reduced points awarded at Grand Prix (25% to 75% race completed)
We race at Imola
Lando Norris finishes WDC in the top 3
We race at Portimao
WCC is won with 5 or more races to go
A driver at Red Bull Racing gets replaced during the season
Mohammed Ben Sulayem steps down as head of FIA
Bahrain and Jeddah races take place later in the season
Lewis Hamilton announces retirement
Max Verstappen wins the WDC
WDC is won with 5 or more races to go
Aston Martin wins WCC
Fernando Alonso wins a race (feature or sprint)
WDC winner wins it by 10 points or less
Williams misses the first public test on Feb 11-13
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
84
84
79
65
52
50
50
35
33
32
28
26
22
22
16
15
15
14
11
10
9
8
7
6
6
5
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Vallteri Bottas?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Ocon
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Ocon OUT FINISH Perez?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Albon OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Bearman?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Bortoletto OUT FINISH Bottas?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Ocon?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Sainz?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/06/28 (Red Bull Ring) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/06 (Italy) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/06 (Italy) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Alonso OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/09/13 (Spain) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/10/04 (Bahrain) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/04 (Bahrain) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hadjar?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Lawson?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Lindbald
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Gasly?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Colapinto?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Ocon?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Bearman?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hulkenberg?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Bortoleto?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Sainz?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Albon?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Alonso
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Stroll?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Perez?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Bottas?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Gasly?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hadjar?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Lawson?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Vinblad?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Gasly?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Colapinto?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Ocon?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Bearman?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hulkenberg?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Bortoleto?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Sainz?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Albon?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Stroll?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Pere
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Bottas?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Bottas?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Stroll?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/11/08 (Brazil) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/29 (Qatar) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/08 (Brazil) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/29 (Qatar) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/11/08 (Brazil) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/21 (Las Vegas) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/29 (Qatar) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/12/06 (Abu Dhabi) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/08 (Brazil) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/03/08 (Melbourne) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/05/24 (Canada) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Stroll OUT FINISH Alonso?
2026/06/07 (Monaco) - Will Bottas OUT FINISH Bearman?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Colapinto OUT FINISH Gasly?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hadjar OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Hulkenberg OUT FINISH Lawson?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Linbald?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Stroll OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/06/14 (Barcelona) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/07/05 (Great Britain) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Piastri?
2026/07/19 (Belgium) - Will Verstappen OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Antonelli?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Hamilton OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/07/26 (Hungary) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Norris
2026/09/06 (Italy) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/08/23 (Netherlands) - Will Alonso OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Russell?
2026/09/26 (Azerbaijan) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/04 (Bahrain) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/04 (Bahrain) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/10/04 (Bahrain) - Will Norris OUT FINISH Hadjar?
2026/10/04 (Bahrain) - Will Hadjar OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Russell OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Leclerc?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Antonelli
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Norris?
2026/10/11 (Singapore) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Leclerc OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/10/25 (USA) - Will Piastri OUT FINISH Hamilton?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Antonelli OUT FINISH Verstappen?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Albon?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Sainz?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Bortoleto?
2026/11/01 (Mexico) - Will Perez OUT FINISH Hulkenbetg?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
75
67
67
67
67
66
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
3422
3106
OptionProbability
Andrew Tate
J.B. Smoove
Freddie Gibbs
Nick Cannon
Hopsin
Kanye West
Floyd Joy Mayweather Jr.
Jay-Z
The 46th President of the United Dawlat of America, Emir Yusuf abu Hunter al-Bidan (peace be upon him)
Cr1TiKaL
Earl Sweatshirt
Michael B Jordan
Lil Nas X
Mark Zuckerberg
Method Man
Frank Ocean
Idris Elba
Liam Neeson
LeBron James
Ice Spice
Snoop Dogg
Tyler the Creator
@strutheo
Curtis Yarvin
Johnny Depp
50 Cent
Pewdiepie
Aella
Taylor Swift
Jon Stewart
Joe Biden
Vladimir Putin
Sam Altman
Larry David
Donald Trump
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Benjamin Netanyahu
Chuck Norris
Pope Francis
Jimmy Carter
100
40
40
40
39
28
28
19
19
16
15
15
14
13
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
7
6
6
6
6
5
5
3
3
2
1
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2422
684
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2225
460
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1661
602
OptionProbability
Kimi Antonelli
George Russell
Max Verstappen
Lewis Hamilton
Charles Leclerc
Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri
Isack Hadjar
Liam Lawson
Pierre Gasly
Arvid Lindblad
Franco Colapinto
Oliver Bearman
Nico Hülkenberg
Gabriel Bortoleto
Esteban Ocon
Fernando Alonso
Carlos Sainz
Alexander Albon
Lance Stroll
Valtteri Bottas
Sergio Pérez
Yuki Tsunoda
65
41
40
34
32
18
14
8
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1039
791
OptionProbability
Kimi Antonelli
Max Verstappen
George Russell
Lewis Hamilton
Charles Leclerc
Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri
Isack Hadjar
Liam Lawson
Pierre Gasly
Arvid Lindblad
Franco Colapinto
Oliver Bearman
Nico Hülkenberg
Gabriel Bortoleto
Esteban Ocon
Fernando Alonso
Carlos Sainz
Alexander Albon
Yuki Tsunoda
Lance Stroll
Valtteri Bottas
Sergio Pérez
Other
25
14
11
11
10
8
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Kimi Antonelli
Max Verstappen
George Russell
Lewis Hamilton
Charles Leclerc
Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri
Isack Hadjar
Liam Lawson
Pierre Gasly
Arvid Lindblad
Franco Colapinto
Oliver Bearman
Nico Hülkenberg
Gabriel Bortoleto
Esteban Ocon
Fernando Alonso
Carlos Sainz
Alexander Albon
Yuki Tsunoda
Lance Stroll
Valtteri Bottas
Sergio Pérez
Other
25
14
11
11
10
8
4
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
November 10–15
Not by November 30
November 16–30
November 1–9
35
27
25
14