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Prediction markets for Agen

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.09%chance

293621384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2835

2565

Gorosei Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

179179417

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3911

1625

Admiral Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

232123687

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1880

1704

Will OpenAI release an agent priced at $10k per month or above in 2025

Mar 5, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.14%chance

7820710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2824

354

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1410125

OptionProbability

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Cursor (custom model)

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

55

21

7

7

4

3

3

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

79

72

67

63

56

49

30

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

236687

OptionProbability

Other

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Yann LeCun

32

22

9

5

5

5

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

46.41%chance

212381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1707

1276

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

34.19%chance

251624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

362

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs?

Mar 24, 9:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

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