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Prediction markets for AI
In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Feb 20, 10:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40%chance
389610126228
OptionVotes
11008
10270
OptionVotes
3663
1798
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Feb 20, 10:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
71%chance
24121763130
OptionVotes
9235
2592
Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?
Feb 14, 2:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
53.87%chance
947615089
OptionVotes
10712
9233
By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?
Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM
19.85%chance
796429524
OptionVotes
34977
14290
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
60%chance
463382160
OptionVotes
3693
1551
OptionVotes
4175
1332
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
Mar 11, 6:21 AMMar 18, 6:59 AM
56%chance
177213195
OptionVotes
6050
3063
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
Jan 28, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
79%chance
288174177
OptionVotes
3090
899
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Jun 10, 7:37 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM
71%chance
228117803
OptionVotes
1565
639
AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?
Jul 17, 3:17 PMJul 18, 3:59 AM
15.81%chance
13658406
OptionVotes
2223
1429
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
51%chance
20847953
OptionVotes
2654
983