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Prediction markets for Ain

Who will be the next Chief Technology Officer of OpenAI?

Sep 26, 1:38 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

2111237

OptionProbability

Other

Anthony Lewandowski

Alex Krishevsky

Andrej Karpathy

@Mira

70

16

11

2

1

Saint Jay Garcia Saturn Stock

May 4, 5:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.15%chance

657582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

598

Terraria 2 announced before 2027?

Sep 5, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.47%chance

52130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3092

323

Will Iran strike US military base at least once before December?

Oct 31, 2:22 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

56.25%chance

14989

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1134

882

Before 2033 will the expert consensus be that formal methods are the best way to avoid $million smart contract exploits?

Apr 25, 5:18 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

87.57%chance

4175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

54

Will ""Buckle up bucko, this ain't over till it's o..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 6, 5:28 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.44%chance

271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

754

Best strategy for surviving extreme political violence. (II)

Aug 28, 5:30 AM

50

Did my prediction about the next 12 months in AI hold up?

Jun 30, 10:44 AM

90

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