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Top stories

Defense Secretary Hegseth Takes Separate Flight to Anchorage for Trump-Putin Summit

US Foreign Policy

Defense Secretary Hegseth Takes Separate Flight to Anchorage for Trump-Putin Summit

Authors

13

18 hours ago

Prediction markets for Air Force One

If Russia starts a war against a Baltic state, will the US military engage in combat against the Russian military?

May 20, 7:33 AMJan 27, 10:59 PM

46.78%chance

589636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

938

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]

Oct 30, 3:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.31%chance

20881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

870

Biden passes away in a foreign country or in flight on Air Force One by end 2026

Oct 16, 8:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.67%chance

7488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

511

97

Will the jet plane gifted by Qatar to the US be transferred to the Trump presidential library (or similar) by 2029?

May 14, 6:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40%chance

14370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.88%chance

10229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

80

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2026?

Oct 24, 7:31 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.78%chance

6106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

72

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

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