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Prediction markets for Alameda

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Nov 18, 6:05 PMDec 18, 6:04 PM

13.29%chance

302368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

664

Will there be a large violent dispute between protesters and ICE in 2026?

Jan 10, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

212049

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1586

631

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 10th State Senate district

Jun 4, 4:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3158

OptionProbability

Other

Scott Sakakihara

Carmen Montano

Aisha Wahab (Democratic, Incumbent)

51

24

13

12

Will we see the transit funding initiative on the ballot?

Jan 24, 5:00 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

85%chance

4152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

238

42

Will transit measure on the ballot pass?

Jan 24, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

74.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

59

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