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Prediction markets for Alameda

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.2%chance

15486803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6125

1486

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will Manifold be able to repurchase our shares from Alameda?

Nov 18, 6:05 PMDec 18, 6:04 PM

13.29%chance

302368

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

664

Will REN 2.0 launch before 2026

Jan 25, 5:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.39%chance

41850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2659

376

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 10th State Senate district

Jun 4, 4:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

330

OptionProbability

Aisha Wahab (Democratic, Incumbent)

Other

Carmen Montano

51

27

21

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