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Prediction markets for Alphabet

Will Navier-Stokes be solved with the help of Google or Alphabet scientists by the end of 2027?

Sep 24, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.51%chance

12066240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15396

10413

Will Alphabet divest from Anthropic by EOY?

Feb 28, 10:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.45%chance

223988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2851

33

Will Manifold be acquired by Alphabet by end of 2030?

Jan 26, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.73%chance

412389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2527

889

US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?

Sep 23, 6:16 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

14.45%chance

251924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

782

Will there be a new letter in the alphabet by the end of 2050

May 20, 2:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.18%chance

101716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

46

Will regulators force a split in Alphabet before 2030?

Jul 19, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.64%chance

291413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

948

Will the Alphabet and Microsoft market cap differ by at least a factor of 3 in 2030?

Feb 17, 3:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.81%chance

311250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1356

711

Will Alphabet spin off Waymo by the end of 2026?

Sep 18, 1:22 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.32%chance

101050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2044

489

Will Sundar Pichai cease to be CEO of Alphabet before 2030?

Nov 1, 8:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.26%chance

15779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

975

958

Who will be the next CEO of Alphabet (Google), after Sundar Pichai?

Jan 24, 12:21 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17610

OptionProbability

Other

Demis Hassabis

Bret Taylor

Jeff Dean

Larry Page

Sergey Brin

Elon Musk

Philipp Schindler

Prabhakar Raghavan

Thomas Kurian

Sheryl Sandberg

Susan Wojocki

Ruth Porat

JOHN L. HENNESSY

Eric Schmidt

Dave Clark

Nikesh Arora

44

20

13

7

6

4

3

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Alphabet becomes the most valuable company in the world by end of 2026

Feb 14, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

13301

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Alphabet Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

3.0 - 3.5

3.5-4.0

Above 4.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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